Analysis and public debate since the Autumn Statement have provided a stark picture of what lies ahead. First, less than half the cut in public spending planned for the period 2010 to 2020 has been achieved so far.
Second, the reduction in expenditure is likely to exceed 20% in real terms.
Third, as health and education will continue to be sheltered, other services will be hit disproportionately hard. One estimate puts the cut for unprotected services at 40%.
The chancellor also said he would continue public sector pay restraint, implying low earnings growth through to 2018/19. This may help with spending control, but it won’t do much for the morale of public sector workers, and it will become increasingly difficult for the public sector to recruit and retain skilled and experienced people.
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