Councils in Wales could be facing an overall budget cut of 9% between now and 2020, the respected Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has warned in a report.
The pessimistic scenario is based on the Welsh Government responding to demand pressures by increasing core health spend by 2% a year while failing to offer any specific protection to council grants.
Under forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility, Welsh council tax will increase by 8.3% in real terms by 2019/20 but this only compensates for about a quarter of the predicted fall in grants and one-fifth of the fall in other revenues, including draw-downs from reserves.
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