There was a sobering figure given during last week’s post-Budget briefing by the respected Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS). At the end of this decade, the level of public spending as a percentage of national income will actually be higher than it was just before the 2007-8 recession, which back then had followed years of big spending increases under the Labour Government.
Public spending as a share of GDP in 2028-29 is also forecast to be 2.9% higher than it was in 2019-20, before the pandemic. At the same time tax levels now are the highest since 1948, tax as a share of GDP rising to 37.1% of GDP in 2028-29, or 4% above the pre-pandemic level in 2019-20.
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