‘I don’t know if it will work,’ he said, but ‘I’m damn well going to try’. Thus George Osborne announced his dramatic move on devolution and business rates last week. After decades of pleas for more local control, local government got what it wished for. The sting in the tail is the ending of central grant and concern about how areas without a thriving commercial sector are likely to perform.
Will business-rich councils in individual regions help less prosperous or dormitory-like neighbours? There are going to be winners and losers, even with some reduced re-distribution. London will benefit, but what happens to secondary cities in the Midlands, the North and especially the North East? We have to wait and see.
Certainly, local government now has much more interest in encouraging business – just as countries engage in competitive tax regimes to attract the likes of Google, all sorts of options now open up for enterprising finance directors.
So far the British public has sighed, and moved on – well, those who have noticed. They like the idea of local control of spending in principle, but worry about ending up with different levels of services. They remain firmly opposed to letting local government control taxation, and the Government has no intention of letting this happen, but the squeeze some localities face in future looks considerable.
Rolling the NHS into deals over local spending control away from Westminster is now a possibility – and this WOULD capture public imagination. But given its financial pressures, hoping as some do, for massive efficiencies as a result sounds fanciful. If that happens, and it’s a big if, local government will be stung with even more opprobrium. As it is, whatever you think, no one can say that local government is going to be boring over the next decade.
What it will look like in 2025 is anyone’s guess. George doesn’t know, but nobody can accuse this likely candidate for PM in 2020 of being cautious.
Ben Page is chief executive of Ipsos MORI