The next election is proving very difficult to call, but I think we can make one prediction fairly confidently: there will be a new secretary of state for local government.
If Labour wins, this is of course a foregone conclusion, but even a returning David Cameron majority is very likely to conduct a major reshuffle of the front bench.
Many in local government will think this no great loss. Fairly or not, Eric Pickles has become one of the least popular communities secretaries in recent memory. But council leaders should think carefully before popping the champagne corks.
For all his faults, Mr Pickles is a genuine localist of a sort and his great contribution to the sector has been not to meddle very much for the past few years.
You might not like his habit of rhetorical grandstanding, but he has not actually forced anyone to reduce chief executive pay or move back to weekly bin collections.
The problem with new secretaries of state is that they like to do things. Some of those will be useful things. The broad direction of policy for both big political parties is towards a greater emphasis on integrating local services and devolving growth power at city region level. This will continue.
It is also hard to imagine the current local government finance system surviving the end of revenue support grant intact.
But some of the things a new communities secretary might do will be much less helpful.
They will probably have strong views on the way councils should handle their cuts.
We should expect an even greater emphasis on shared services and new programmes to support local authority performance, procurement and efficiency.
The rhetorical grandstanding is likely to continue, but it will most likely be backed by more policy sticks and an even tougher set of fiscal fundamentals.
So, by all means open a bottle in honour of Mr Pickles’ departure, but remember, for better or worse, we may not see his like again.
Simon Parker is director of the New Local Government Network
