Think-tank voices fears over gloomy fiscal outlook

By Michael Burton | 16 April 2020

Recent forecasts by the official spending watchdog of a swift return to normality for the economy and the public finances after the coronavirus lockdown have been downplayed by a new think-tank study.

The Resolution Foundation in a report today (April 16) predicts the impact on the public finances of three scenarios in which the virus lockdown lasts three months, six months or 12 months.

A three month lockdown would push the deficit to a record 11% of GDP, higher than the peak of the financial crisis, a six-month period would push it to 21% of GDP and a 12-month lockdown would require the Government to borrow 38% of GDP in 2020, more than the UK has borrowed in any single year in its history.

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