Why consider what Local Government Pension Schemes (LGPS) will look like in 10 year’s time, when we could look at changes in five, three or one year’s time, particularly since the next 12 months will see truly unprecedented changes in the sector?

We believe a longer time horizon is necessary because the impact of these changes will take considerable time to work through.

Based on the broad assumptions that the financial system will continue to function approximately as it does now and that there is no major political upheaval, we suggest that there will be fewer investment pools around than the 89 LGPSs’ today. We would not be surprised if there were no more than 10 or 15 in 10 year’s time. We use the words ‘investment pools’ advisedly, as it is quite possible that LGPSs will maintain their identity while the process of pooling assets and administration in order to reduce costs continues.