We are heading, it seems, back to the early 1970s, to the era of car coats, Number Six tipped, Gilbert O'Sullivan in the top 10 and unions taking on Conservative Governments. The town hall unions' latest bid for an average pay rise of 2.5% for 2010/11 – 4.3% for the lowest paid – is underpinned by their traditional dislike of the Conservative councils which now constitute the majority of English local government. The fact that we are in the midst of a recession, the public finances are up the spout after a long run of above-average funding, private sector jobs have been shredded, their employees' pay frozen and pensions decimated, does not appear to be much of an influence on town hall union executive policy. If anything, it has confirmed the opposite view, that if public sector unions do not dig in their heels and take to the barricades, they too will go the way of their private sector colleagues, especially with a Conservative Government looming. Unfortunately, their members may take some persuasion. A current Unison report admits that ‘we will have a challenging job to persuade members that they deserve a decent pay rise.' The problem, it seems, is that too many of them ‘seem to have accepted the financial situation' which entails job and service cuts without realising this is all part of the ‘Conservative ethos of a reduced state and low taxation.' The report, on this month's trade union NJC executive meeting, concludes: ‘We will need active engagement across the union to mobilise support among the membership.' The stage is, therefore, set for a pre-election dust-up which owes much to the wider political environment, one in which both local and central government could well be controlled by the Tories by next June, to the unions' chagrin. This, of course, has a direct bearing on the progress of pay negotiations. The likely offer from employers will be 0%-0.5% and they will be under pressure to stick to it. The unions will reject the offer. Employers will be in no hurry to do anything until after the election, by which time there could be a Cameron Government, in which case the chance of any extra money for pay awards is less than nil. Michael Burton, Editor, The MJ
