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An increasing number of factors has led to a decrease of publicly-funded adult social care productivity, on average, by 2.1%, according to latest statistics to come from the Office for National Statistics. But what does this mean? And what are these factors which are leading to the changes set out in Public service productivity: Adult social care, which tracks adult social services between 1996 and 2005? Adult social care, as defined in the report, helps people who need extra support, or vulnerable people, to live their lives as independently as possible. This can range from low-level services, such as day centres, to intensive care received at home or in a care home. Publicly-funded adult social care includes services provided by the independent sector, but funded by councils. The Local Government Association has increasingly drawn attention to the UK's ageing population – a major area for concern. And this, according to the ONS, could reflect the change in productivity as this ageing population puts an increased demand on adult social care. The LGA has been pointing out for some time that in the next three years alone, there will be more than 400,000 extra older people. Earlier this year, former chairman of the LGA, Sir Sandy Bruce-Lockhart, said: ‘The social care system is creaking at the seams. The Treasury must be honest about whether it is prepared to fund elderly care, which older people deserve, but if not, it must be open about the impact this will have on local services and the burden it is choosing to shift on to council taxpayers.' This increase in the elderly population, the reports authors claim, can be coupled with a ‘progressive shift by local authorities to shift service provision to the independent sector, provide more care in clients' homes, and increasingly, provide care only to those in greatest need.' The ONS has said the pattern of productivity change may also reflect increasing quantity of output as care home weeks purchased from independent providers; use of measures of ‘care home weeks' and corresponding unit costs which fail to distinguish the intensity of need of clients; and, the shortcomings of the current estimates with respect to measuring changes in the quality of adult social care. The paper does however point out that although changes are still needed, improvements have been made to measure the methods of productivity. Rather mathematically, productivity is estimated by dividing annual figures for output of adult services – in principle, including an estimate of change in the quality of service – by inputs to adult social care – in volume terms, after allowance for pay and price. Karen Dunnell, the national statistician, said: ‘This article takes further the work of the ONS in estimating productivity changes for adult social care, providing an important measure of this growing policy area.' Next steps revolve around plans for improving the adult social care output measure so that it takes account of quality, and also intensity of need. These are now being addressed through research by the personal social services research unit. Additionally, the report's authors state developmental challenges, including difficulties in determining the boundaries of adult social care and public services, and the importance of understanding the contributions to the welfare of clients by families, neighbours and carers, which may complement publicly-funded adult social care, must be overcome.

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Old age, new pressures

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