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Tony Blair once said he wished he had studied history at university rather than law, presumably for the insights it would have given him into how previous politicians handled dramatic events and challenges.Andy Burnham studied English at university, but he too, will doubtless be taking a few historical tomes off the bookshelves of Chequers and No10 for enlightenment.He may already have studied the concept of the hero in history. This is the non-Marxist view that powerful individuals can shape events as much as or more than social forces – though the Marxist view is that the social forces throw up the powerful individual in the first place.For example, the world would be a very different place had Lord Halifax become prime minister in 1940 instead of Churchill or had James Callaghan won the election in 1978 or 1979 instead of Margaret Thatcher or indeed if John Smith had lived to be prime minister in 1997 instead of Blair.Henry V before Agincourt would hardly have inspired his troops had he told them: ‘Blimey lads, we're outnumbered, most of us aren't going to make it' instead of: ‘He to-day that sheds his blood with me shall be my brother…gentlemen in England now a-bed shall think themselves accursed they were not here.'Starmer won a landslide election with a wind of goodwill behind him and promptly blew it away by telling voters in the manner of Private Fraser that ‘we're all doomed' due to the Treasury's black hole and life was about to get even worse. It was hardly inspirational and it was downhill from then on.So are we again at this moment in history when an individual can, through leadership, shape events and motivate a sullen population?Burnham's fellow Labour MPs certainly believe he can. He has seized on the ongoing weakness of UK government policy, its inability to spread wealth throughout the country and addressed it head-on.His No10 North may sound gimmicky but it is certainly eye-catching. His pledge on devolution is not new, but it strikes a chord as does his promise on more council houses and hints on business rates.At a dinner at the Local Government Association Conference last week communities secretary Steve Reed, echoing his next leader's mantra, called the audience of council leaders and chief executives ‘revolutionaries' to emphasise his devolution credentials.After the gloomy two years and lack of direction under Starmer, Burnham has everything to play for: the challenge will be to offer hope and to actually deliver, rather than issue a stream of promises that are never fulfilled despite the hostile fiscal environment.And it sure is hostile. With great timing the Office for Budget Responsibility last week delivered its latest fiscal outlook. Needless to say it was grim, saying that all its scenarios ‘show the public finances eventually moving onto an unsustainable path' due to an ageing population while debt at 95% of GDP was historically high. The transition to net zero also means a sharp drop in fuel tax revenue.Healthy life expectancy which was increasing in the 2000s has been static since 2012. It is now falling, ‘driven primarily by worsening self-reported health among the working-age population, which is consistent with wider indicators of this group's worsening mental and physical health' – a challenge to councils who took over public health just about the time healthy life expectancy stopped rising.Taxes are at a record high, though the UK is by no means an outlier. The OBR added: ‘The UK's overall tax-to-GDP ratio is forecast to rise to 43% of GDP in 2030-31, from 37% of GDP in 2019-20. This would take it from around 4% of GDP below the average of advanced economies to slightly above, though still below the G7 average.It does not however, recommend further increases, saying these will have unintended consequences such as employees not wanting to work.So, Burnham could be at a 1940, 1979, even a 1415 moment when, despite facing the immense socio-economic and global challenges, he will take the people with him.He could be the hero in history. Or he could be doomed to be buffeted by social forces and become yet another here-today-gone tomorrow prime minister. Historians wait with bated breath.Michael Burton's latest book, Sharks and Dolphins: A practical guide to private/public sector partnering, is published by Bite-sized Books and available on Amazon

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DEVOLUTION

Will Burnham be the hero in history?

By Michael Burton | 16 July 2026

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