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Hugh Grover warns that the 2011 census must reflect the real picture of population changes or public services will lose funding. The 2011 census is a golden opportunity to provide London's public services with an accurate understanding of their residents' needs. But the Office for National Statistics' (ONS) failure to address the lessons learned in 2001 means we could be sleepwalking towards a massive undercount of London's population. "Unfortunately, it appears the Office for National Statistics has not learned the lessons of 2001 and is again failing to plan to engage with hard-to-reach groups. " The census sets the baseline for population estimates over a 10-year period, so the financial impact of an undercount can be felt for a decade. A comparatively small undercount can have a huge impact. An undercount of 10,000 people (5% of a typical London borough's population) could lose that borough £60m over a 10-year period through one grant alone – equivalent to 155 teachers per year. In the 2001 census, London had the lowest regional response rate of 85%, including the 10 lowest responding authorities ranging from 64%to 79%. To compare, the East Midlands had one of the highest regional responses of 96 per cent. The ONS compensated for this by assigning characteristics to those who did not respond. But this is no substitute for counting them accurately in the first place, particularly in London where such extremes of wealth and poverty live side by side. Most worryingly, it was the highest needs groups that had the lowest response rates in 2001 – so the people that were undercounted were precisely those most likely to use our services. This low benchmark has informed the funding of London's public services since 2004, and has been compounded by subsequent inaccurate population estimates that ran contrary to individual borough's own work to count their residents. Unfortunately, it appears ONS has not learned the lessons of 2001 and is again failing to plan to engage with hard-to-reach groups. As our latest publication Counting the costs explains, ONS must ensure the 2011 census is fully resourced. Their current plans include recruiting forty community liaison officers for England and Wales – not nearly enough to engage hard-to-reach groups in London, let alone the entire country. We also want ONS to engage local authorities to lead on the recruitment of local residents as census collectors – after all, they understand their communities best. ONS also needs to reduce their over-reliance on postal returns and commit extra resources to provide hand delivery and face-to-face follow-ups. As I said, 2011 is a golden opportunity but unless ONS heed our warnings, that opportunity could be missed – and Londoners will be left counting the costs. Hugh Grover is director of fair funding at London Councils

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WHITEHALL

Next census must ensure accuracy

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