Title

The chairs of three of the sector's major associations could change hands in the aftermath of today's local elections. According to independent political data website PollCheck, Labour is expected to lose 1,121 seats of the 2,500 it is defending and the Conservatives 512. An AI-driven model by data firm Bombe has suggested Labour could lose control of around 50 councils.Reform UK has been projected to win the most seats, gaining about 1,300 councillors and control of 14 councils, while the Greens could gain more than 400 seats and control of eight councils.Many wards across the country are expected to be closely contested, with results potentially decided by small vote margins, increasing the likelihood of more councils falling under no overall control.Amid expected catastrophic losses for Labour and the Conservatives, the Local Government Association (LGA), London Councils and the County Councils Network (CCN) all face the prospect of fresh leadership.According to local government experts, the balance of power at the LGA is too close to call ahead of the elections, with the association understood to be planning for five different scenarios. Sources close to the association suggested current Labour chair Louise Gittins is expected to stand down regardless.The Green Party is widely expected to pass the 5% threshold required to form a political group.But, despite the national party's enthusiasm for the move, The MJ understands local Greens are debating whether they would be best served sticking with the independent group, which could make them a major player in the association.Chairman of public affairs and communications firm Cratus, Nick Kilby said: ‘It could be that no party has clear rights to the chairmanship [of the LGA]. Labour, Reform and even the Lib Dems are all very close to being [on] the same amount.‘London is likely to see 10-12 councils in no overall control, with some predictions up to 16, while [London Councils chair] Cllr Claire Holland is in danger of losing her Lambeth seat.'Unlike the LGA, London Councils is made up of the leaders and elected mayors of the boroughs so is likely to remain Labour-led. Contenders to replace Holland, should she lose her seat, include Ealing LBC leader Cllr Peter Mason, Waltham Forest LBC leader Cllr Grace Williams and, should Labour hold Westminster City Council, Cllr Adam Hug.The Conservatives are expecting a wipe out in the county elections.A local government source said: ‘Reform is taking all the counties… perhaps with the exception of Suffolk.'One model has suggested the Conservatives could be left with just five seats across the whole of Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex CCs.The results are likely to lead to Reform taking control of CCN, with Lincolnshire CC leader Cllr Sean Matthews tipped to take the chair.Opinion polls have suggested potholes rank alongside the cost of living, health services and crime as the key deciding issue for how people will vote.Despite the dire polling for Labour, some councillors remain cautiously optimistic.One Labour councillor said: ‘Helpfully, I'm not up in this third – but the ward is challenging. That said, acknowledging it is not easy, we are finding positivity as well. While there are clear negative voices – especially from those who were less likely to vote in locals historically – we are finding support and less challenges overall than we had in the worst Corbyn years.'Leader of the LGA's Conservative group, Cllr Kevin Bentley, said: ‘We're working hard to retain control of Conservative councils and running positive campaigns to get across that it is Conservative councils that provide competent administration to residents.'The Conservative leader of a council that is projected to fall into no overall control said: ‘On the doorstep all fine. Some support for Reform but our vote holding up.‘Then I come home to see all the online stuff, which presents a much more negative picture. So, honestly, I have no clue.'Heather Jameson says the implications of large-scale change will cast ripples far wider in the local government pond

Title

POLICY AND POLITICS

All change: Reform UK projected to make huge gains as local elections get underway

By By Heather Jameson & Dan Peters | 07 May 2026

Popular articles by Dan Peters

SUBSCRIBE TO CONTINUE READING

Popular articles by Dan Peters