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Robert Hill: Eric Pickles will be moved Crystal balls are difficult to read, but if I interpret mine right, the economy will do well to keep growing throughout 2011. Unemployment will rise sharply, and the coalition will fail to hit its target for reducing the deficit. Housing will become a major political issue, driven by the stagnant state of the housing market, housing benefit reform and access to social housing. There will also be problems with NHS performance and reforms. Communities secretary Eric Pickles' arrogance will be his undoing, and he will have been moved from his department by the end of the year. The referendum on the alternative vote will – unfortunately – be lost. The first Liberal Democrat MPs will have resigned the party whip, and either have gone independent or joined Labour. The LGA will effectively be ‘Balkanised', with real power moving to SIGOMA, the County Councils Network and London Councils, with district councils being left to fend for themselves. Robert Hill, independent consultant, and former Number 10 adviser Paul Wheeler: Local politics will get angry This will be the year when local politics gets angry. Whether this will be channelled through a UK-style Tea Party, or the main opposition party, will be one of the major challenges for Labour leader, Ed Miliband. The pending by-election in Oldham East and Saddleworth will provide a useful indicator of voters' judgment on the two coalition parties, and a portent for the May elections. Now, more than ever, local government needs a strong, united voice in the Local Government Association (LGA), to counter the inevitable tabloid attack – encouraged by some government ministers – on its role and function. Paul Wheeler, director, Political Skills Forum Dan Corry: The postcode lottery will be back Any sensible economist knows that forecasting is a mug's game. Nevertheless, it is hard to see 2011 being anything other than tough. Even if growth gets close to 2% – which is heroic, given VAT and sluggish EU growth – it will feel like we are still in recession for most, as jobs really do start going big time in the public sector and the private sector recovery is not enough to offset it, and certainly not to provide the ‘right' jobs for those being thrown out of work. And whatever statistics are banded about on the progressiveness of the cuts, there is no doubt that families on lower incomes will be hard hit, whereas the better-off will still be well off, even if the skiing trip and violin classes have to go. Maybe the Big Society will take the strain, but more likely, civil society will resist being asked to take all the blame for the cuts. Expect the phrase ‘postcode lottery' to start creeping back into use. Dan Corry, economic consultant at FTI Consulting, and former Number 10 adviser and head of the policy unit under ex-PM Gordon Brown Ben Page: The new world will begin in 2011 This will be the year when we get the tough medicine. We will see the worst of the cuts, but also the beginnings of the new world that will emerge afterwards, which will be leaner and a little meaner. Productivity ought to improve, which will be good – but expect trouble and strife, muddle and unforeseen consequences. Both apocalyptic critics on the left, and right-wing enthusiasts will see less change than they predict. Here are mine – house-building seems unlikely to start zooming ahead any time soon, as the new world of planning works its way out. Cuts in charities and social care, plus the ongoing tsunami of an ageing population seem likely to increase pressures on authorities – witness the increase in failures in social care so far. The press will be more strident as the cuts work through. The public will get crosser. But, at least by the end of 2011, people working in local government will know where they are – which isn't the case at the moment, as councils grapple with spending decisions. Ben Page, chief executive, Ipsos MORI Martin Horton: People will respond to cuts Apart from bankers approaching the bonus season, it is hard to think who is looking forward to 2011. The first three months will be taken up with increasingly-shrill predictions of impending disaster as budgets for 2011/12 are finalised. From April onwards, some will prove unfounded, many understated, and yet more will impact in ways that no-one predicted. And people will respond. Not necessarily through formal organisation, but for every threatened toddler group, youth club, small charity, and green field, there will be a new Facebook page, a new network, a fresh action. Many will remain local, but some will catch on and connect regionally and nationally. Expect a fair few reversals of policy locally and nationally in response. The year will see a bigger, more engaged society, but not necessarily one that those in power at a local or national level are going to be comfortable with. Martin Horton, management consultant David Walker: There will be car crashes ahead An elephantine Health Bill will overload the parliamentary timetable, further delaying Audit Commission abolition – leaving audit high and dry. Councils, as per the Government's script, will get a disproportionate share of the blame for unfolding housing, children and social care disasters. This ought to be the year when local government gets up off its knees and starts answering back to ministers whose ‘localism' is skin deep, but I fear the only resistance will come from mavericks and old-stagers. But the decimation of the Liberal Democrats in May will start to concentrate minds. Tory councillors ought to see their areas' and their own political interests are not the same as Mr Pickles', but partisan alignment is probably too strong, leaving the LGA ever less effective and facing collapse. David Walker, commentator on public services, and former communications director for the Audit Commission Paul O'Brien: Expect big changes in May This first six months of 2011 are likely to be the toughest period for local government in a generation, with the impact of the cuts becoming all too real. Redundancies, wage freezes and higher-than-anticipated inflation mean morale will plummet as the local government workforce knows it is being targeted unfairly to pay for the sins of others. A growing tide of resentment will lead to support for protests and perhaps industrial action. Significant changes in political control are likely to occur at the May local elections, when the coalition's popularity is tested. Towards the end of the year, local government may gradually become more sanguine, despite a noticeable deterioration in service levels by an unhappy public. Post-cull, those who remain will be busy trying to do their best under less-than-easy circumstances. As the Localism Bill clears the Commons, many of its strongest advocates will be left disappointed as the rhetoric of third sector involvement manifests itself as marketisation of local services. Paul O'Brien, chief executive, APSE (the Association for Public Service Excellence) George Jones: It should be ‘the Centralism Bill' Despite the Localism Bill, which should be called the Centralism Bill, 2011 will see central government continuing to intervene in local affairs. The current doctrine is ‘guided localism', with central government making rhetoric about local government's new freedoms and flexibilities, but at the same time, insisting local authorities do what it wants, rather than what local councillors and citizens want. Local authorities will not be allowed to decide how to collect refuse, or set up surveillance cameras, or levy a council tax at the rate they think appropriate. Whitehall departments will constrict local government with their policies on education, health, policing, welfare and transport. The present confusion of local government finance will persist, with no side admitting it is responsible and accountable. Central and local government will blame each other for the cuts. My depressing prediction is central government will not decentralise taxation, nor will local government demand it. George Jones, emeritus professor of government, London School of Economics

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WHITEHALL

Our columnists' predictions for 2011

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