Back in March this year, at a swanky local government dinner in the City of London, I found myself sitting next to a Conservative county council leader and happened to mention that, in my opinion, there could well be an autumn election, once Gordon Brown was in power. He responded: ‘I hope not – we're not ready for one!' To which I added: ‘Precisely. A very good reason, therefore, don't you think?' It always seemed to me that if Mr Brown could make a good impact in his first few weeks, then an autumn poll would be a distinct possibility. To use the old cliché, strike while the iron is hot. And Mr Brown, in particular, will recall the disastrous decision by PM James Callaghan in 1979 to postpone an election in the autumn of 1978 until the following spring. In the interim, the country suffered the so-called ‘winter of discontent', Labour lost the election, and there followed 18 years of Conservative government, which is imprinted into Mr Brown's psyche. One of the reasons why Mr Brown has made a good impact on the polls so far is that he has given the impression of both change and new policy, without abandoning all that came before. In effect, he offers the electorate both change and stability, an attractive combination if it can be achieved. In contrast, David Cameron, somewhat bafflingly, since it was obvious Mr Brown would take over, appeared unprepared for the blizzard of Green Papers and policy guidances which poured out during July, mostly proposing new or different roles for local government. Much of it, such as the housing, planning and city-region reports, had been in the pipeline for weeks, and there was no reason why the Conservatives could not have pre-empted them with a few reports of their own. All this, of course, is more than passing interest for local authorities. Although Mr Brown has a mandate to continue as PM until spring 2010, in reality, he wants a mandate for himself from the electorate, not a hand-me-down one for Tony Blair. And if gets it, he has already made it plain that his agenda for economic and social regeneration envisages a key role for local government. Michael Burton Editor, The MJ
