Electoral dysfunction

In the days leading up to last week's Labour Party conference, Prime Minister Andy Burnham squashed down hard and decisively on the speculation that had been building up on the prospects of calling an early General Election. As well he might, having learned from Gordon Brown's fatal indecision over the snap election that never was in 2007.Can we really expect No10 North and South to sit quietly on their hands between now and 2029, while exciting plans to solve social care funding and staffing and liberating a hog-tied national economy from the fiscal bondage of the 2024 Starmer manifesto commitments and the triple lock remain so temptingly at hand?However, if recent history of newly-installed Prime Ministers going early, despite earnest prior protestations to the contrary is anything to go by, Brenda from Bristol might soon be decrying ‘not another one' in the early new year.Judging from the cadence and style of government announcements, and the preparatory reactions of the Conservative and Reform parties, the indications do suggest a reasonable probability of Burnham going to the country to seek a mandate next May.Can we really expect No10 North and South to sit quietly on their hands between now and 2029, while exciting plans to solve social care funding and staffing and liberating a hog-tied national economy from the fiscal bondage of the 2024 Starmer manifesto commitments and the triple lock remain so temptingly at hand?The counter-argument is that with a solid three-digit majority and three years left on the clock, and without a commanding lead, it would be political folly. Why risk a high-stakes humiliation on the scale of Stanley Baldwin's 1923 call, which led to the first Labour Government in history, or Theresa May's calamitous campaign in 2017 asking the country to give her support to get Brexit done?The implications of this electoral timing for local government, the impact on its reorganisation in places and the future of devolution strategy could be momentous, bordering on the tragi-comic.It would make this Parliament's attempt to foist local government reorganisation (LGR) on councils as the Treasury's ‘pound of flesh' price for devolution, not merely a shitshow, but potentially the most expensive shitshow of all – particularly if the £500m debt write-off granted to Woking to enable the East and West Surrey unitarisation is counted as its sole success.Although we await the Rewiring the State White Paper expected around the time of the 28 October Budget, in the immediate impact of the LGR announcement councils are lacking a clear roadmap and are being left to manage the second order effects of the pause with warm words of encouragement, but minimal operational guidance.For councils in LGR areas who have devoted their attention, political capital and capacity to the political division and then service configuration complexities arising from the process, the question would arise: what could be preserved?Possibly, the hope that the next time a new administration came a-calling and with a plan for twin-tracking devolution and reorganisation they would be prepared. Or, failing that, using the knowledge and insight gathered from the process to set in train, regardless, viable elements of the ambitious place-based public service reform programmes which reorganisation entailed. Hardly optimal, but again, not the first time the sector has been marched to the top of the hill.What is not a matter of speculation is the reality that on 6 May 2027, regardless of whether the General Election is called or not, we now have the unedifying and unexpected scenario on what had been the LGR areas of holding local elections on the existing district council and unitary authority footprint, rather than the shadow ones.This panic delivery mode has sparked an immediate scramble to identify candidates willing to bet on board during this uncertainty.It is fair to note that the LGR process has been the punishment, and there is a significant burnout among highly experienced councillors and officers that is imperilling a whole generation of strong political leaders.It raises the prospect of a new cadre of inexperienced members operating in a sea of fragmented political leadership. Essentially, and even until such time as clarity becomes a possibility, local government is facing a ‘Schrödinger's devolution' in which the process could be simultaneously alive or dead until one actually takes a look into the particular box.On the most optimistic basis – and this would involve a single-minded focus to move heaven and earth like no other – the earliest practical new date for shadow elections might be October 2027. And it must also be noted that elections to the shadow unitaries are far more complex to administer than a General Election, due to the multi-vote systems, boundary changes and parish council inclusions.If a General Election were called between any of this, who knows. Certainty is what the sector most desperately needs. Council officers have a justified reputation for pragmatism and the ability to run robust elections no matter what. However, the current environment of speculation based around sudden policy handbrakes is just about reaching breaking point.To preserve what is left of local trust, as well as the expense and time that has been thrown into the process from being wholly wasted, we would need a definitive roadmap that aligns with the devolution and LGR agenda with realistic electoral and administrative timelines.Who knows, we might just get to vote on it.Jonathan Werran is chief executive of Localis

Title

ELECTIONS

Electoral dysfunction

By Jonathan Werran | 06 October 2026

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