What is 'good growth'?

Stronger economies create jobs, attract investment, support public services and make places more resilient. But there is an important distinction between an economy simply getting bigger and growth that makes a place stronger.The current and future English combined authorities will have a major role to play in delivering Andy Burnham's vision of ‘good growth in every postcode'. So, prior to the Budget and the announcement of further new authorities by 2028, we looked at GVA growth across 20 existing and planned combined authorities across the decade from October 2016 to October 2026. This analysis combined our model's forecasting capacity with official data to look at exactly which authorities are performing best currently.Interestingly, while each of the authorities' economies grew in terms of headline GVA, in many cases this economic growth was barely faster than the rise in population during the same period. And across two flagship combined authorities – Tees Valley and Cambridgeshire & Peterborough – the population grew faster than the economy, meaning local GVA per head fell between 2016 and 2026.That balance – encapsulated by GVA per head – better aligns with the experience of prosperity on the ground, and the real growth in the resources available per resident.Greater Manchester shows strong growth working, but even this well-known success story needs to be tempered by a careful analysis of what its former mayor and now Prime Minister really means by the ‘good' when he speaks of bringing ‘good growth in every postcode'.In the decade to October 2026, the greater Mancunian economy grew by almost 40%, while its population increased by just over 10%. That still puts it top of the table of combined authorities, but with a more modest 10-year growth of 26.5% in GVA per head, or 2.4% compounded annually.There are other strong examples of where headline economic growth is indeed translating to prosperity per resident, rather than simply a larger economy of the same character. West Yorkshire has also performed strongly, recording a 20.4% increase in GVA per head during the past decade.Notable in the same analysis was South Yorkshire where population grew very modestly up just 4.5% in the 10 years to October 2026, but saw GVA rise by 19% meaning GVA per head increased by 14.1%. A case of slightly more people and a notably bigger economy.However, the relationship is less straightforward elsewhere. Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority has seen population growth of 17.3% during the past 10 years. In real terms, this means that despite its economy being 13.6% larger than a decade ago, GVA per head has fallen by 3.2% during the same period.This indicates that, according to official data and our forecast to the present day, the combined authority with perhaps the strongest claim to Britain's technology-driven future is seeing growth, but not yet fast enough to raise output per resident.Tees Valley is the second case of an actual decline in GVA per head over the last decade. Its economy is 3.7% larger than in October 2016, but with population growth of 7.5% in the same timeframe this represents a 3.5% decline in GVA per head.Understanding the relationship between GVA, population and the growth prospects for specific local industries and major employers is particularly relevant when preparing economic strategies, local growth plans, investment programmes and proposals for major infrastructure. A rising GVA figure may appear to validate an existing strategy, but the conclusion could be misleading if taken in isolation.Getting closer to the real issues at hand can better focus resources and local debate on the fundamental issues at hand for the future of a community. Is employment growth failing to keep pace with the working-age population? Are new jobs concentrated in lower-productivity sectors? Is there a mismatch between residents' skills and the requirements of local employers? Are infrastructure constraints limiting business investment?Ultimately, successful place-making is not simply about building bigger economies or accommodating more people. It's about ensuring that growth creates the conditions for stronger, more productive and more prosperous communities – and combined authorities will be the most important engine in powering that process.Adam Kirby is chief executive of the UK geospatial intelligence platform, EvaluateLocate

Title

LOCAL ECONOMIES

What is 'good growth'?

By Adam Kirby | 13 November 2026

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