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In my travels, I invariably ask chief executives and council leader what cuts in spending they are budgeting from 2011 onwards for the next three years. A typical range is 3%-5%. The gloomier ones predict more. But their forecasts are invariably complicated by the extent to which favoured parts of the public sector, such as health and schools, not to mention defence, will escape, leaving the burden to fall on local government. We know that during an election campaign, politicians who threaten to cut spending on the NHS and schools are turkeys voting for Christmas, so inevitably, their pledges to ring-fence these areas might be taken with a pinch of salt. However, that shouldn't mean local government itself must, therefore, make no response. The public get very irate when visible services, including those encompassing the street scene and community safety, are cut, as LGA chief executive, John Ransford, notes in his column. A new idea put forward by experts such as Tony Travers is that the fairest way is to freeze all public spending across the board – including pay. The attraction of this is that it meets the chancellor's goal of halving the deficit by 2015, without imposing swingeing cuts on parts of the public sector like local government. Indeed, from the latter's perspective it makes them a winner. Of course, there are losers, namely that part of the public sector which politicians on the election trail are currently promising to protect, eg, the NHS. On that topic, Audit Commission chief executive, Steve Bundred, has already stated on several occasions that the NHS has been stuffed with cash, has not increased its productivity to match, and should not expect to be spared efficiency savings. Treasurers would be wise to assume the worst from 2011. But they might also consider that once the election is out the way, spending cuts may be spread more equitably, and that 0% rather than a cut of 5% might still be an option. Michael Burton, Editor, The MJ

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WHITEHALL

Are we heading for a freeze?

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