There are lies, damned lies and statistics. And then there are inflation statistics. According to The Times this week, the average 3.5% rise in council tax – as suggested by the LGA's survey – is three times the inflation rate, based, it claims, on a Treasury prediction that inflation will be ‘1%' in the next financial year. A rise of 3.5% is still a lot for people on incomes which are static or declining, but whether this is ‘three times' inflation is debatable. Even taking into account the Treasury's constantly over-optimistic forecasts and even taking into account national newspapers' propensity to always over-egg any council tax rises, this predicted 1% inflation rate will still be a surprise for most of the public facing big rises from other parts of the economy. The predicted ‘1% inflation rise' has certainly failed to sink into Boris's Transport for London, where the average almost-10% rise in London Underground fares this month is, therefore, ten times the inflation rate. The Royal Mail is putting up the price of stamps from April by the same amount. It is also, as it happens, increasing the price of mailing out magazines (such as The MJ) by 4.3%, not exactly great timing in the depths of a recession for the private sector. The increase in gas prices this last year at 50% is into the stratosphere, and shows little sign of coming down, despite the drop in oil prices. In comparison with all the above, the average 3.5% council tax rise is at the lower end.
