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WHITEHALL

How London's biggest housing projects are battling the crunch

London’s largest housing regeneration projects held their second annual forum – the Future of London – last week. Michael Burton looks at themes which emerged from the day’s speakers, who included mayor Boris Johnson.

London's largest housing regeneration projects held their second annual forum – the Future of London – last week. Michael Burton looks at themes which emerged from the day's speakers, who included mayor Boris Johnson.

Holding an event with 20 of the capital's largest housing-led regeneration projects, worth some £30bn, at a time when the nation's focus was on how to spend its way out of the recession, was either brilliant planning or plain luck.

Either way, the event, the Future of London, staged last week in Westminster, but planned many months ago, when the words ‘credit crunch' suggested breakfast cereals rather than a global banking crisis, could not have been more topical.

The headlines that very morning were about the Government's conversion to Keynesian economics, and how this might boost the economy through big building projects.

The credit crunch, and how local authorities could respond, dominated the seminar, which was attended by some 400 public and private sector managers from London's biggest housing projects. LocalGov.co.uk has to declare an interest here as it – and its associate titles, Local Government News, Surveyor and the MJ – were media partners, while I chaired the final session.

Reactions to the banking crisis and economic downturn could be summed up in three ways.

The first was that councils were in an ideal position to take on land at knock-down prices, thereby both bailing out struggling construction firms, but also building up their own land banks for the future.

Even the minister, Iain Wright, in his morning address, hinted that the Government was looking generally at this option. The second reaction was that the banking and Iceland crisis would freeze up developments and, as a result, bring major infrastructure projects to a halt or, at the very least, terminate Section 106 agreements, and so, reduce community facilities.

However, general feedback was that the current big delivery projects were too advanced to be affected, although some might find the timetable will need rejigging. Indeed, speakers from the Olympic Delivery Authority and the London Development Agency were quite upbeat.

The third reaction was understanding the state of the housing market, once the recession ends, generally regarded as being sometime during 2010.

The consensus was that the recent model, of over-extended credit lending, inner-city brownfield developments of flats fuelled by buy-to-let investments, and a focus on owner-occupation were at an end. The view was that there would be a greater emphasis on the rented sector and, in particular, a growing demand for intermediate renting, ie, neither social housing nor owner-occupier.

Despite falls in property prices, London will continue to be out of reach for many young buyers, who will turn to the rented sector.

A big question is what will happen to the glut of inner-city flats in places such as Leeds or Nottingham, which were previously the catalyst for regeneration but where demand has dropped like a stone. Will these become the high-rise eyesores of the future? And what will happen to the areas around them?

Finally, as one housing expert put it: ‘With its bank bail-out, the Government has crossed a psychological barrier. Who knows what could happen next.'

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