As we enter the dog days of August, managers' minds focus on what lies ahead for the next year. And the conclusion by every manager across every part of the public sector is that they will need industrial strength seatbelts to withstand the bumpy ride ahead. The trouble is, while there are plenty of analyses of the current predicament, the solutions are less forthcoming. In the past couple of weeks, as people step away from the treadmill and look at the horizon, I have had similar conversations with many well-connected insiders. To summarise, their varied conclusions are as follows – grant cuts will be in the region of 10%, but when we add in the drop in revenue and cost pressures from social services, the budgetary reduction could be as high as 30%; on the other hand, there is much shroud- waving and councils are laying it on with a trowel; there is no such thing as a Conservative grand plan for public services should they win next May, and they won't know what hits them; an incoming Conservative Government will use localism to devolve not real powers but only the responsibility for implementing swingeing cuts; the necessary structural changes such as Total Place will yield no appreciable savings within five years and will, therefore, have no impact on public spending; councils have been here before and, despite all this pessimistic talk, will get through it as they always have done; future leadership skills will mean experience of implementing major cuts while maintaining, even improving services, and many current senior managers have experience of the latter but not the former, and certainly not the two together. There is one common theme, namely, that public services must be more joined-up and managers must be less silo-based. How to get there is a question much discussed but yet unanswered, because the obstacles are so immense. A report from the National School of Government this week, for example, says the recession is a catalyst to introducing more effective public sector leadership – but admits the key question is not ‘whether' but ‘how'. On that note, happy holidays to all and The MJ will be back on 3 September. Michael Burton, Editor, The MJ
