Last week's ‘resignation' of David Davis reminds us that politics is a volatile and unpredictable business, and that assumptions about election results can swiftly be overturned.
Who, this week, for example, can be now quite so certain that in 2010, David Cameron will be swept into Number 10, especially if the Davis by-election turns out to be an expensive farce which rebounds against the Conservatives?
But local government, directly affected by Westminster politics, still has to remain in the prediction business. It must continue to build in scenarios as accurately as it can, even taking into account the volatility of politics and the economy, because so much of its work hinges on changes – or not – in central government.
For, there is certainly no lack of legislation and new policy for it to implement, and yet the timetables are already perilously close to the next general election. Take the ongoing boundary review into the three counties of Devon, Norfolk and Suffolk. The timetable means final decisions will be announced next January, shadows for the new unitaries begin in April, and the new councils up and running by April 2010, just weeks before a general election.
The Tories, with their preponderance of shire district councillors, have already made it clear they are opposed to unitary local government, whatever their county members say. So, for John Healey, the three counties will be the last hurrah for unitaries should the Tories win a 2010 election. Will such a prospect encourage him to be more radical in selecting unitaries than he otherwise might have been?
Take next the White Paper, scheduled to be announced in the week beginning 7 July, with Royal Assent granted by summer next year, just months away from the 2010 election. Or take the CAA, due to be up and running by autumn 2009, again just months from the election. Or the huge upheaval in the 14-19 schools agenda, with the transfer of LSC funding back to LEAs by September 2010, following the setting up of a shadow system next year, and a chairing role for the RDAs – which the Tories are committed to scrapping.
Predicting political and voting trends may be like peering into a crystal ball, but local authorities have no choice. They must carry on peering.
Michael Burton
Editor, The MJ
