Title

It is ‘very unlikely' Labour will win a fourth term, pollster Ben Page has claimed in this week's The MJ. However, he says: ‘Next week's local elections will not be the final nail in Labour's coffin. Faring badly in local elections does not mean the end of a national government.' Mr Page, chairman of polling firm Ipsos MORI, believes the prime minister's record on the economy is now under threat, and what is unfolding is a classic case of a government losing an election, rather than the opposition winning one. The Tories, however, will benefit from making in-roads in the northern authorities, and if Boris Johnson wins the London mayoral elections, Mr Page says. Labour's prospects for the local elections took a further bashing when the party suffered a shock defeat in one by-election, and came fourth in another. The Lib Dems defeated Labour at a North East Derbyshire seat which was previously unopposed. It is close to Sheffield, where both parties have a chance of taking control next week in the city where Lib Dem leader, Nick Clegg, is an MP. Labour came fourth in a Suffolk CC contest behind the Tories, Green Party and Lib Dems. The last main contest, the 2005 general election, saw Labour come close to the Tories. Tories lost Eden DC's Morland seat to an independent. So far in April: l Tories defended seats at East Devon DC, Fenland DC, Herefordshire CC and Suffolk CC l Liberal Democrats gained from Labour at North East Derbyshire DC l Ind gained from Tories at Eden DC. So far this year: Liberal Democrats have one net gain in by-elections, and independents two. Tories have two net losses, and Labour one.

Title

WHITEHALL

Pollster says a fourth Labour term 'unlikely'

SUBSCRIBE TO CONTINUE READING