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If [MP] James Purnell can't be bothered to stand for Labour at the upcoming general election, why should anyone else have faith in the party? The last-minute decision of the Stalybridge and Hyde member to throw in the towel means six of the brightest Labour talents in the North West will not be around if the party needs to remodel itself after defeat. "The departure of these six MPs is important. It sends out a signal about Labour's prospects." It seems ages since Ruth Kelly [Bolton West] announced her decision to quit. Then, in quick succession, around last summer's expenses and leadership crisis, Kitty Ussher [Burnley], Bev Hughes [Stretford], and, particularly surprisingly, John Hutton [Barrow], announced they were going. Jane Kennedy [Wavertree] has now been followed by Mr Purnell. The departure of these six MPs is important. It sends out a signal about Labour's prospects. So, is that it then? Well, not quite. We shouldn't rule out a hung parliament, and the marginal seats are, therefore, more important than ever. Thirty-odd constituencies in the North West could make a big difference to the next government of the country. Lancashire is the prize county for the Tories, with Labour looking vulnerable in 10 constituencies. In addition, boundary changes have handed the Conservatives the new seat of Wyre and Preston North. In Greater Manchester, two Bolton Labour seats look set to get Conservative women MPs – Susan Williams in Bolton West, and Deborah Dunleavy in North East. Even more sure is a Tory win in Bury North, where the Labour MP, David Chaytor, faces criminal charges in the expenses row. The Liberal Democrats have a key role in five Greater Manchester seats. Salford promises to be a sideshow all on its own. The more opponents [current MP] Hazel Blears gets – there are currently four – the better her chances. On Merseyside, the Conservatives should mop up two seats on Wirral and the new constituency of Sefton Central. The Tories' best prospects in Cheshire are in the City of Chester and Warrington South, while little change is expected in Cumbria. It promises to be a fascinating contest. Jim Hancock is a commentator and former BBC political editor, North West

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WHITEHALL

Soap Box

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