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Prediction is difficult, especially about the future – as the late Nobel Prize-winning physicist, Niels Bohr, observed. However, our crystal ball for local government in 2010 can conjure up a number of possibilities. First, we will have a general election – at long last – and, despite the noises off, it will almost certainly be on 6 May, with the major set of local elections. "What is clear is that local government has to be ‘match fit' for the new responsibilities which may come its way after the election." All general elections are considered critical but, given the overall economic situation and the real prospects for political change, this one certainly is. And with more than 120 MPs already announcing their departure, this will be a new House of Commons, whatever the actual result. In the next 12 months, we are certain to see new faces at the helm of the Audit Commission, IDeA and LGA. All are critical to the future of local government. The regulatory environment for local councils will also change, with both Ofsted and the Standards Board facing uncertain futures. For local politics, there will be real opportunities, but also major challenges. Within the major parties, there are already major struggles to ensure that the warm pre-election talk about localism becomes a reality. Nowhere is this more true in the Conservative Party, as the dominant party in local government and the one best placed to secure an overall parliamentary majority. What is clear is that local government has to be ‘match fit' for the new responsibilities which may come its way after the election. To be in a position to do this, and take on professional interests, we need to think seriously about collaboration between local councils. Paul Carter, the free-thinking leader of Kent, has started such a debate, and there needs to be serious discussion on what the new world of local government will look like post-May 2010. Paul Wheeler is director of the Political Skills Forum.

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WHITEHALL

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