Over the coming month, all eyes will be focussed on the local and European elections, and in particular, the potential rise of UKIP as a major political force a year out from the General Election.
But, once the results are in, the next year of campaigning will start in earnest. It’s already clear it will be dominated by debates about economic credibility, economic recovery and the extent to which people feel they benefit from growth – a feeling that seems to vary depending not only on who you are and the job you do, but also where you live.
Growth is undeniably back: in recent weeks, we have been bombarded by positive statistics about the state of the national economy.
The Office for National Statistics, the Office for Budget Responsibility – even the International Monetary Fund – have all suggested that the good times have returned to the British economy, and that growth is here to stay. It’s been a chance for the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats to argue that their ‘long term economic plan’ is working, but that there is more they need to do.
Yet one of the most topical debates is whether, regardless of the headline stats, people across the country feel that things are getting better for them personally.
Labour’s Ed Milliband has gambled much political credibility that they do not, as he continues to challenge the Government on standards of living. Drawing on evidence from organisations like the Resolution Foundation he insists that, despite growth returning to the economy, sustained real terms increases in average wages are still some way off and that the benefits of economic recovery are not being felt in all parts of the country.
Although the overarching narrative of a “squeezed middle” has recently been challenged by analysis from the Social Market Foundation, our research suggests there is little doubt that the pace of recovery continues to vary significantly between individual places.
For example, we know that, in large part the recovery has been led by London. Between the start of the recession and the end of 2012, 4 out of every 5 new private sector jobs were created in London, and there is still insufficient evidence to judge whether this picture has radically changed as the recovery has gathered pace. Just as before recession struck in 2008, it seems likely that London is pulling away economically from the rest of the economy.
These trends are creating increased demand for infrastructure and services within the Capital and across the Greater South East, where house prices and transport costs continue to rise way in excess of average wages.
For cities outside the capital, there has been recent positive news on jobs, and particularly on manufacturing (although the experience of Germany suggests that manufacturing will struggle to create jobs at scale). However, economic growth continues to be much slower than in London, meaning that those living in places such as Sunderland, Blackburn and Stoke, still face significant challenges in getting and keeping well-paid work.
The different challenges facing different places have been recognised by the Coalition who, through City Deals and other initiatives, have worked to provide places with the powers and funding needed to tailor national policies to in order to address local issues. But much more remains to be done if cities outside London are to fulfil their potential, and those living within them are to feel the benefits of the growing economy.
While the forthcoming local elections will be held up as a key milestone on the campaign trail to the 2015 General Election, the real test for each of the major parties will remain their economic credibility in the eyes of the public. This is unlikely to be determined by national statistics and headline figures alone, but also the day to day experiences of voters as they access jobs, save to buy a home, or start a family.
This means politicians must think about how they can best support people and empower places to grow in the years ahead.
My hope is that, as each party makes the case that they are best placed to deliver the jobs, transport and housing that places need to thrive, we will see a ‘race to the top’ around cities policy and devolution in particular, as a way for national politicians to directly affect the day-to-day lives of people trying to make the most of the opportunities that economic growth offers.
Alexandra Jones is chief executive of Centre for Cities
