Kent's political possibilities

Kent was the scene of the biggest surprise at the 2025 local elections as Reform UK achieved a dramatic landslide victory at the council's elections. The extent of Reform's triumph was remarkable as it went from zero to 57 seats and reduced the previously dominant Conservative administration to a handful of members.Under its new leadership, Kent CC became the ultimate test case for Reform in local government with the establishment of a Department for Local Government Efficiency, that was modelled on Elon Musk's similarly named DOGE initiative, created to find significant savings in the council's budget.Now, as we rapidly approach the first anniversary of Reform's victory in Kent, the situation is somewhat different. Ten of the 57 councillors elected for Reform to Kent CC have left the party and the council leadership was required to increase taxation by 3.99% for the upcoming financial year. The leadership of the council faces an additional challenge – the reorganisation of local government across the county – with the new maps for the proposed unitary councils submitted for adjudication.To this effect, it was unsurprising to see the county council propose a single unitary authority for the entirety of Kent. This approach has been seen elsewhere, with county councils typically arguing in favour of larger unitary areas. As Reform's support in 2025 was relatively strong across the county geographically, there is politically little downside in following this strategy.However, with Kent having a total population of around two million, a single authority would be more populous than the Government's expectations of the correctly-sized unitary. Furthermore, the fact that Surrey – which has a smaller population than Kent at 1.2 million – has been redrawn into two unitary authorities indicates that we can most likely expect more than a single authority in Kent.Dover, Swale and Thanet councils, which all have Labour leaders, have proposed an alternative map of four unitaries, two of which – North Kent (Dartford, Gravesham and Medway) and East Kent (Canterbury, Dover and Thanet) – could be construed as being winnable for Labour in normal circumstances, although in the current climate, Reform is likely to be a major threat to Labour in both authorities.As we have experienced elsewhere, the district councils across Kent have recommended a range of options that would see the creation of multiple unitary authorities.Five district councils: Folkestone & Hythe, Maidstone, Sevenoaks, Tonbridge & Malling and Tunbridge Wells have endorsed a three-unitary model which, based on the Surrey precedent, may represent a likely outcome. This would see the creation of a North Kent unitary consisting of Dartford, Gravesham, Medway and Swale which, in the current political climate, would seem to be potentially winnable for both Reform and Labour.Conversely, the proposed West Kent unitary – Maidstone, Sevenoaks, Tonbridge & Malling and Tunbridge Wells – could be a closely run contest between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives.The final proposed unitary under this model – East Kent (Ashford, Canterbury, Dover, Folkestone & Hythe and Thanet) – would appear to have potential, not just for Reform, but also for the Green Party who are already involved in the council administrations at Ashford and Folkestone & Hythe.Dover, Swale and Thanet councils, which all have Labour leaders, have proposed an alternative map of four unitaries, two of which – North Kent (Dartford, Gravesham and Medway) and East Kent (Canterbury, Dover and Thanet) – could be construed as being winnable for Labour in normal circumstances, although in the current climate, Reform is likely to be a major threat to Labour in both authorities.These recommendations include the same proposed West Kent unitary authority as previously referenced. This indicates that there is a degree of consensus across the political divide on this new authority. However, the three Labour-led councils deviate in calling for an additional Mid Kent unitary authority consisting of Swale, Ashford and Folkestone & Hythe that would be promising territory for the Greens.Kent's only current unitary authority, Medway Council, has joined forces with Ashford and Canterbury to propose a somewhat different four-unitary map that would see existing district council boundaries divided, but would still see East, Mid, North and West Kent unitary councils created.The final option proposed by Conservative-controlled Dartford and Labour-controlled Gravesham would see five unitary councils established. Under these proposals, Medway, Sevenoaks and Swale districts would be divided up. These proposals would see a North Kent unitary dominated by Dartford and Gravesham, which may partly explain the attraction of this map to its supporters.As with other counties, the politics of Kent reflect the fragmented divisions of our age, with all five main parties currently running administrations in the county and with a smattering of Independents also involved in Ashford and Swale.It is therefore unsurprising to see a diverse range of proposals for the new unitary map which we can expect to come into effect by 2028.Based on what we have seen previously from the Government, it would not be surprising if a map of three or four unitary authorities were to be ultimately selected and it is likely there will be electoral opportunities for all five main parties in such a scenario.Duncan Flynn is senior director, Home Counties, at Cratus Group

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POLITICS

Kent's political possibilities

By Duncan Flynn | 29 April 2026

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