Preparing for the next food fight

Last month's official figures showed food inflation slowing to its lowest rate since late 2024. After years of relentless increases, any sign of easing pressure matters for households already stretched to breaking point. Yet the British Retail Consortium, which represents the major grocers, expects food inflation to pick up again over the coming months as conflict-driven input costs feed through.For the families we work with, that is less a future risk than confirmation of what they already know: across the UK, millions never really recovered from the last wave of pressure and are still living with the long tail of the cost of living crisis.Financial resilience has been steadily eroded over several years, leaving many people with little ability to absorb another rise in food or energy costs. The reality is that households do not experience inflation in neat economic cycles. Pressure accumulates through higher rents, rising bills, unstable work, poor health and increasing cost of essentials until people are left operating permanently on the edge.That is why prevention matters so much.Too often, our systems still wait until households reach visible crisis before meaningful support arrives. By the time families are using emergency food provision, falling into debt or presenting with worsening health conditions linked to stress and poor nutrition, the social and economic costs are already far higher.Food matters here because it is one of the few household budgets that remains flexible when financial pressure builds. Rent, transport and energy costs are largely fixed, leaving food as the area families cut first when money becomes tight. Parents skip meals so children can eat, households reduce nutritional quality, meals become smaller or less regular and fresh food is replaced with cheaper, more filling alternatives. Framed as short-term coping, these carry real consequences for physical health, mental wellbeing and wider resilience.This is why recent independent University of Sheffield research into UK food clubs was so important. The report called for food clubs to be recognised as essential public health infrastructure, reflecting the growing evidence that affordable food access is not simply about hunger, it is about prevention.Food clubs work because they operate upstream of crisis. They create consistent access to affordable, nutritious food within trusted community settings before financial pressure escalates further. Importantly, they do this without referrals, thresholds or stigma, allowing people to access support earlier and more routinely.That preventative role is becoming increasingly important for local government.Councils are already carrying the financial consequences of sustained hardship through rising pressure on social care, housing, public health and crisis support services. Waiting until households reach breaking point is not only damaging for families, it is increasingly unaffordable for the public sector too.The Bread and Butter Thing's 2026 Social Value Report, independently assessed using HM Treasury Green Book aligned methodology, found the organisation generated just over £19 of social value for every £1 invested, totalling more than £132m in 2025.The Government's Crisis and Resilience Fund (CRF) presents a real opportunity here if councils choose to use it strategically. There is understandable pressure within local government to prioritise immediate crisis response while demand remains so high. However, using CRF solely for reactive interventions risks repeating the same cycle of short-term firefighting.That figure should make policymakers think carefully about how preventative support is funded, because this value is not generated through expensive statutory intervention, but through something far simpler: helping households access affordable food in their own communities before problems escalate.The value extends far beyond food. It sits in reduced stress around feeding a family, improved nutrition, greater financial stability, stronger community connection and reduced reliance on emergency support.There is also a community dividend. Hubs increasingly act as trusted local spaces where people access wider support, build confidence and reconnect socially. Across our network alone, more than 183,000 volunteer hours were contributed during 2025.The Government's Crisis and Resilience Fund (CRF) presents a real opportunity here if councils choose to use it strategically. There is understandable pressure within local government to prioritise immediate crisis response while demand remains so high. However, using CRF solely for reactive interventions risks repeating the same cycle of short-term firefighting.There is a chance instead to lock in preventative infrastructure now, before the next food shock arrives. That means investing in trusted, community based systems that reduce pressure early, maintain dignity and help households stay steady through future volatility. It means recognising affordable food access as part of public health resilience, not simply emergency welfare provision.Future shocks are coming. Whether through geopolitics, energy markets, climate disruption or inflationary pressure, food insecurity is unlikely to become less volatile over the next decade.Crisis support remains essential and food banks continue to play a critical role for households facing acute hardship. But prevention performs a different, equally important function. It helps reduce pressure earlier, supports households before problems escalate and lowers the likelihood of people reaching crisis point in the first place.The evidence increasingly shows that preventative infrastructure improves outcomes not only for households and communities, but for the wider public purse too.Vic Harper is chief executive of The Bread and Butter Thing

Title

RESILIENCE

Preparing for the next food fight

By Vic Harper | 02 July 2026

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