This will be a memorable set of local elections for the ages, possibly for all the wrong reasons. But for all the political theatre, at local and regional level, the outcome of this year's local elections will have the profoundest of implications for the future direction of devolution, local service reform and finances.
The early indications are that Reform will have expanded on last year's breakout success by hugely adding to the ranks of 987 councillors on the eve of polls and the nine local authorities with a sweep across the north east, north west and midlands. Although the caveat should be that many of these are being contested as thirds, like Angela Rayner's Tameside, which has now been lost to no overall control to the Reform onslaught.
For Labour, one is put in mind of Monty Python's ‘Life of Brian' when Reg (played by John Cleese) the leader of the People's Front of Judea delivers the line: ‘One total catastrophe like this is just the beginning!'.
Caught in the merciless pincers of the new reality of genuine multi-party politics, playing out at local level on a first past the post system, the expectation is that a bad dawn rising of early setbacks will get worse as the counting continues throughout the day.
For the Conservatives, this new reality means that they are not the main beneficiaries of Labour's implosion. However, bright spots include Dan Swords' storming defence of Harlow and the retention of Broxtowe, suggesting that the party is not quite the dead parrot pining for the fjords quite yet. Similarly, regaining the flagship Westminster City Council in the capital and the ability to form the administration to run Wandsworth will offer some sense of vital life signs.
The beneficiaries of the culling of their electoral coalition will be Reform from the right flank and variously the Green party, nationalist parties of SNP and Plaid Cymru in Scotland and Wales and ‘Gaza independents' from the left.
On a difficult morning after, one salve for Labour may be in the ability of their vote and political control in London to hold up, as proved the case in Merton LBC, which if it does bear out would prevent the extinction level haemorrhaging of lost council seats.
In this local, regional and national limb-lopping exercise, Labour resemble nothing less than the Black Knight from Monty Python and the Holy Grail, shorn of legs and arms. Ministers out on the airwaves would be advised to steer clear of dismissing the losses as ‘Tis but a scratch'.
However, if the number of lost councillors passes the 1,500 we are in an unknown level of local election catastrophe, surpassing John Major's first electoral test in 1991 which saw 1,035 Conservative councillors lose their seats on a night Labour surpassed them as the leading party of local government or the 1,150 Tony Blair's first term New Labour shed in 1999.
For the Conservatives, this new reality means that they are not the main beneficiaries of Labour's implosion. However, bright spots include Dan Swords' storming defence of Harlow and the retention of Broxtowe, suggesting that the party is not quite the dead parrot pining for the fjords quite yet. Similarly, regaining the flagship Westminster City Council in the capital and the ability to form the administration to run Wandsworth will offer some sense of vital life signs.
With Reform gaining Havering, the fate of the remaining outer boroughs will assume great importance. And beyond here, significant attention should be paid to the county elections and the fate of Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk in particular. Any Conservative loss of these plum heartland counties in the devolution priority programme areas may play havoc with general election campaigning, and more immediately might well presage ceding control of the influential County Councils Network.
For the Lib Dems, the ability to transplant their ‘Gails bakery' strategy from the 2024 general election and consolidate their hold over swathes of south west London and southern heartlands may well justify their leader Sir Ed Davey's watery campaign trail buffoonery. Taking all the seats in Richmond upon Thames is piling up on existing success, but the win of Stockport in Greater Manchester as well as Portsmouth suggests a greater national footprint.
One outcome of these local polls may well be to cause more doubt and uncertainty over the devolution agenda. News that the secondary legislation for the devolution priority programme areas will be deferred until autumn may well be a harbinger. Certainly, the political calculus and existing dynamic is that the Labour government will not want to give Reform anything like a prominent platform. And in turn Reform at local and national level will have little to no desire to play ball with either devolution or a local government reorganisation programme, in which they have provided no input and have little to gain from. All this poses some fundamental questions for the institutions of the local government family to chew over in the run up to the LGA Conference in Bournemouth.
And given the prospect that when the votes are in, many councils will be fading to the grey of no overall control, we must consider the associated governance risks. Scenarios of inexperienced elected members and leaders, often in patched-together rainbow local coalitions, bearing the weighty responsibilities of balanced budget setting and local stewardship and delivery, and against the backdrop of intense service pressures and constrained council revenues. The sector support offer will have to be strong and credible for everyone's sake. If not, we can, I suppose, always look on the bright side of life.
Jonathan Werran is chief executive, Localis
