Believe the hype, these were a set of local elections for the ages. Nationally, the outcome further marked how local polls held between General Elections inform what is likely to happen nationally. The fragmentation of political allegiance has reconfirmed the reality that the UK is now operating as a European style, multi-party political system. Witness the three traditional parties barely scraping half of the vote between them.
From the right flank, Reform emerged a clear head in front as the winner, scooping 1,453 new councillors and 14 councils in ‘blue wall' and ‘red wall' strongholds such as Conservative heartland Essex and Sunderland in what had been Labour's north east hegemony.
And from the left flank, the Green Party added another 441 councillors and five councils and took the London mayoralties of Hackney and Lewisham, but despite all that did not live up to the promise of prior expectations.
In contrast, Labour were the main losers, shedding 1,496 seats, or three seats lost for every five contested, and control of 38 councils in England. All this as well as defeat in the elections to the devolved Scottish and Welsh Parliaments – the latter a humbling end to a century of dominance.
For the Conservatives, their crowing over early Friday morning successes in flagship London boroughs of Wandsworth and Westminster, could not truly mitigate a disappointing set of local results. Instead of being able to capitalise on Labour's implosion, they ended up losing 563 councillors and six councils overall and the control of every shire county they contested. However, their successful defence of the outer boroughs, the Bexleys and Hillingdons, does suggest a hard limit to Reform inside the M25 and a potential strong Conservative tilt at the London mayoralty in two years' time.
Meanwhile, Sir Ed Davey's Liberal Democrats piled on a further 155 councillors and took the new shadow authorities of East and West Surrey at the first time of asking. This serves to shore up a position in south west London (securing all 54 council seats in Richmond) and the South East, although there was the retention of South Cambridgeshire in the East as well as inroads into Greater Manchester through Stockport.
The implications of political fragility extend beyond the core urban centres to the devolution priority programme (DPP) areas. Of these, Essex and Suffolk fell to the turquoise Reform wave with ease. However, although they took the most seats in Norfolk, the success of Rupert Lowe's ‘Restore Britain' party in holding out in the Great Yarmouth area forestalled the chance to gain overall control and might prove a harbinger of great danger to Reform leader Nigel Farage in future local and national elections.
Consideration must be paid to the faction or political situation nobody votes for, but which often wins through – the grey rosettes of no overall control (NOC).
NOC gained another 22 councils, taking the tally overall to 61. Most notably, and worryingly, Birmingham City Council, the largest local authority in England and one of the most beleaguered, finds itself bereft of political direction. The implications for its recovery as a functioning authority able to deliver its service commitments as well as the potential impact to the wider West Midlands economy could be startling.
From the second city to the capital, London's governance is now hamstrung by a record nine boroughs, more than a quarter filed under NOC – from Brent in the North to Croydon in the South. Although this is not unprecedented for the capital, the changes and diffusion of power are a challenge for co-ordinating relationships between the boroughs' collective voice with the London Mayor and the GLA, let alone central government.
The implications of political fragility extend beyond the core urban centres to the devolution priority programme (DPP) areas. Of these, Essex and Suffolk fell to the turquoise Reform wave with ease. However, although they took the most seats in Norfolk, the success of Rupert Lowe's ‘Restore Britain' party in holding out in the Great Yarmouth area forestalled the chance to gain overall control and might prove a harbinger of great danger to Reform leader Nigel Farage in future local and national elections.
Hampshire and East and West Sussex similarly will have to patch together governing arrangements before their eventual dissolution.
With this in mind, news that the secondary legislation for the DPP areas will be deferred until autumn may well signal a gumming up of the works. Certainly, the political calculus and existing dynamic is that the Labour Government, whatever form and shape its leadership takes between now and the next General Election, will not want to give Reform anything like a prominent platform. And in turn, Reform at local and national level will have little to no desire to play ball with either devolution or a local government reorganisation programme in which they have provided no input and have little to gain from.
We must further consider the associated governance risks. We must imagine scenarios of inexperienced elected members and leaders, often in patched-together rainbow local coalitions, bearing the weighty responsibilities of balanced budget-setting and local stewardship and delivery.
Against the backdrop of intense service pressures and constrained council revenues, and with a political system at local and national level unable to offer clear instructions, the sector support offer will have to be as strong and credible as ever, for everyone's sake.
Jonathan Werran is chief executive of Localis
