Our Localis paper – Reorganisation, Local Government and the Future of English Devolution – examines the thinking and intentions behind the Government's unnecessary, expensive and distracting reorganisation proposals. We show that the White Paper contains two major problems: an over-hyped and ill thought-out commitment to devolution: and an unexpected and unjustified local government reorganisation, not mentioned in the party's 2024 manifesto, but which has heralded the most wide-ranging and disruptive overhaul of local government for 55 years.
Apart from a limited amount of devolution earmarked for strategic functions in existing combined authorities in the metropolitan county areas and a handful of additional locations, there is no substantive devolution on offer for local government nor planned. Interestingly, the Government's reorganisation is challenged by Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats' gains in the counties. Of the 14 counties allowed to hold elections in May 2025, Reform gained a majority in seven and is unlikely to support Labour's plan for reorganising where they control, especially in Kent and Lancashire, by replacing the county with three or four unitaries. Why would they want to dismember a council they have recently won? Similar considerations apply in Lincolnshire, Derbyshire and Staffordshire.
Of the remaining seven counties, the Liberal Democrats gained three, with five in no overall control. It is difficult to see why the Lib Dems would want the councils they control reorganised out of existence. In the four with ‘no overall control', will any coalition support the abolition of their council within the next four years?
A key feature of the White Paper was that two-tier county areas were to be replaced with unitary authorities with average populations of half-a-million. What are the implications where population falls below this magic figure?
Of the seven counties with elections cancelled in 2025 –a move showing the Government's predetermined views that the councils were going to be abolished - there is stalemate. In Surrey, Herts, Essex and Hampshire, for example, there is no county – district consensus on reorganisation. Will the Government step in and impose a solution?
Uncertainty and conflict face the government in May 2026, with elections in 32 London Boroughs, 36 metropolitan Boroughs, nearly 200 district councils and a handful of unitaries. Will it cancel another swathe of elections, particularly in districts within the seven counties where elections were cancelled in 2025, but not to do so in the remaining 14 county areas?
Reform and the Lib Dems are likely to prosper in 2026: the former in the ‘red wall' areas; the latter in the formerly Conservative county strongholds, where the Lib Dems did well in 2024 and 2025. In neither case is it likely councils will support Labour's reorganisation upheavals. On one scenario, by 2026, there may well be hardly any majority Labour councils, except in some London boroughs and a few (relatively) flourishing cities. The likelihood is a stand-off between a Labour government seeking to implement LGR, with minimal political support throughout the country, and an almost full quota of councils with different political control, unlikely to be supportive of the white paper proposals and possibly antagonistic to them.
A key feature of the White Paper was that two-tier county areas were to be replaced with unitary authorities with average populations of half-a-million. What are the implications where population falls below this magic figure? Such as almost all met districts (including Jim McMahon's Oldham, population 225,000), almost all London boroughs and almost all existing unitary authorities in established urban settlements with strong levels of community identity, such as Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Luton, Southampton, Portsmouth and countless others, The implications are the disappearance from local government of scores of ‘real places', with long civic traditions, well-grounded and supported in local communities.
Our Localis publication explores in detail the White Paper's shortcomings and inconsistencies including: the lack of justification regarding savings claimed to result from reorganisation; a lack of evidence regarding the government's capacity to implement devolution in the county areas; the ignoring of substantial transitional costs of LGR; and, the greatly reduced capacity of new authorities to cope with the government demands on house building, homelessness, town planning, social care and education. There is also the total lack of willingness to explore alternative evidence, views and systems overseas or engage with the 50 years of independent, academic evidence that shows there is no guarantee that bigger local government will be better, on any measure, or to engage with that showing the damage caused by local government size increases.
Then there are the major constitutional concerns raised, particularly the arbitrary cancellation of the May 2025 elections and how the government has used local government's constitutional non-existence to push through its agenda.
The government's commitment to authorities of around half-a-million will accentuate the vast gulf between the approach toward local government in England and practice throughout Europe and the USA in relation to council size, composition and the powers of municipalities. It will further decimate the councillor population, continually reduced since 1974, hollowing out local democracy and reducing opportunities for citizens to take part in local self-government.
Our report highlights how and why the centre has consistently sought opportunities to establish large unitary authorities and has often succeeded in doing so, demonstrating a ‘capacity for influence' over ministers who may lack knowledge of, or interest in, such issues.
We are left with the death of local government and marginalisation of local democracy: the legacy of this government will be the destruction of the ‘local' in local government.
Steve Leach is emeritus professor of local government, De Montfort University and Colin Copus is emeritus professor of local politics, De Montfort University (and visiting professor Ghent University)
