The party that chose the most unpopular – and short-reigned – Prime Minister ever, is about to have another go with Rishi Sunak, having dodged the bullet that was Johnson.
Their one hope of avoiding electoral wipe-out is to persuade the public they had a temporary spot of madness, but normal service is now resumed.
Mr Sunak will find it hard to meet the funding squeeze the British state now faces. The challenge is that Covid and the energy crisis leave us in a tricky place with the markets. Labour's huge lead – last seen in the 1990s – means bold measures are called for. Labour look to have had a ‘Black Wednesday' type moment – after the crash out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism in September 1992, Labour moved decisively ahead in the polls and stayed there for five years. Time will tell if the Liz Truss mini-Budget has had the same effect – never before have polls moved so decisively against a party and a leader – the fall in her ratings is the fastest Ipsos has ever measured.
Meanwhile, we have a seven million waiting list in the NHS, inflation destroying public spending plans and a criminal justice system under huge pressure. As an aficionado of inspection systems, I was particularly impressed by Hammersmith, Fulham, Kensington, Chelsea and Westminster probation services all receiving zero out of a total of 27 inspection points last week. Chief Inspector of Probation Justin Russell said: ‘For a probation delivery unit not to score a single inspection point is something I did not expect, or ever want, to see. But many of the failings are beyond these individual services to fix.'
This type of thing will become more common, I fear, as we struggle to balance the books. But, overall, only one person in five regards the NHS as the biggest problem facing the UK, despite satisfaction falling to the lowest level in decades; satisfaction with local government is down from 72% but still at 63% over the last decade.
We may now be at a point where we need to change our expectations of public services, or we may just muddle through – until finally we hit a tipping point in public opinion. We may just have seen one: we just do not know it yet.
Ben Page is global chief executive officer of Ipsos
@benatipsos
