The plans may have changed, but the people questions are only becoming more pressing.
That was one of the clearest messages to emerge from our session at The MJ Future Forum Midlands, held against a rapidly changing backdrop for local government reorganisation (LGR). Forty-eight hours before the session, the ground shifted. The conversation we had prepared for was suddenly taking place in a different context: LGR decisions had been paused, some withdrawn, and local elections reinstated. Once again, the policy picture had changed.
But while structures and timescales shifted, the human impact of uncertainty remains. People are still making decisions about their careers. Organisations still need to retain experienced leaders. Teams still need clarity and support, even when their leaders do not have all the answers.
Our session drew on research with more than 170 senior local government leaders, exploring how LGR, devolution and wider change were affecting organisations, workforces and careers. The research was conducted before the latest announcement, but the questions it raises remain relevant: how do you keep good people engaged when the future feels uncertain, and how do you know when someone's relationship with the organisation is starting to change?
The response from the Future Forum audience offered a useful live snapshot of the mood and behaviours across the Midlands, and an opportunity to compare what delegates were seeing locally with findings emerging across the wider sector.
When asked what they were seeing and feeling within their own organisations, 41% said good people were holding on but becoming disengaged. A further 32% saw a genuine appetite for future opportunities, while 9% said people were quietly looking elsewhere.
The room did not exactly mirror the wider research, but the comparison was revealing. Nationally, 47% of senior leaders reported increased staff turnover as a result of LGR, while 38% had observed colleagues already leaving to take up new opportunities and 38% had seen people actively looking for new jobs.
In our research, 41% of senior leaders had observed an increase in short-term decision-making within their leadership team, 34% had seen greater risk aversion or decisions being deferred, and 44% reported increased reliance on a small number of individuals.
What emerged in the room was a different but equally important signal. The strongest response was not that people were leaving, but that they were staying while becoming less engaged.
Retention is rarely as simple as someone deciding to stay or leave. People can remain in post while becoming less connected to their organisation, less committed to its future or more deliberate about what comes next. By the time someone formally decides to move on, that decision may have been developing for months.
Our wider research reinforces the importance of not losing sight of this regardless of the pause on LGR. Seventy per cent of respondents said they were worried about staff leaving, while 75% said LGR had affected their own career plans. The context has shifted, but the talent market was already moving, and the underlying workforce challenge has not disappeared.
Greater uncertainty can make it harder to read what is happening within a team, but it can also change behaviour long before somebody makes a formal career decision. Leaders cannot rely on assumptions about ‘the mood' of their organisation.
In our research, 41% of senior leaders had observed an increase in short-term decision-making within their leadership team, 34% had seen greater risk aversion or decisions being deferred, and 44% reported increased reliance on a small number of individuals.
The Future Forum responses demonstrated just how differently people can experience the same situation. Some may feel relieved by the pause and ready to refocus. Others may feel frustrated that uncertainty has simply been extended. Others may already be thinking about their next move.
That is where the conversation needs to shift: from trying to predict every structural outcome to understanding what people need in order to stay committed, useful and ready.
The starting point for retention is listening, but not in the abstract. In periods of structural change, leaders can become absorbed by services, structures and roles while employees are making quieter decisions about their careers, development and sense of purpose.
Career conversations become particularly important here. Not every conversation needs to be about whether someone is planning to leave. It can be about what they want to learn, what experience they would like to gain, what responsibilities they could take on, or where they see themselves contributing most effectively.
The Future Forum audience offered another useful point of comparison when asked how they themselves were preparing for an uncertain future. Nearly a third (32%) said they had taken on additional responsibilities, 23% had sought out new experiences or projects, 18% had invested in their personal development and a further 18% said they had thought more deliberately about their career.
Those responses closely reflect the picture emerging from the wider research. Nationally, 78% of respondents said their response to reorganisation had become more active over the past year, 45% had taken on responsibilities beyond their role, and 44% had already engaged in informal career conversations outside their organisation.
The important point is that activity does not always tell you whether somebody intends to stay or leave. Taking on responsibility, developing skills or seeking broader experience can be signs that someone wants to grow where they are. They can also indicate that someone is preparing themselves for future opportunities elsewhere. The only way to understand the difference is to have the conversation.
Our Future Forum session focused on three connected ideas: making sense of uncertainty, keeping people engaged and staying ready. For councils thinking about their workforce, they remain closely linked. Leaders cannot always provide certainty. They can be clear about what is known, what is not known, what remains unchanged and when people can expect to hear more. They can listen for changes in behaviour and motivation. They can also create opportunities for people to continue developing, even when the wider picture remains unresolved.
One of the most striking findings from the report was the gap between personal confidence and organisational confidence. While 93% of senior leaders felt their own skills equipped them for success, almost half did not believe their organisation was well equipped with the skills it would need over the next few years, and 43% lacked confidence in their organisation's ability to recruit and retain the talent required.
The challenge, therefore, is not simply understanding who might leave. It is understanding whether organisations have the leadership capacity, capability and resilience they will need for whatever comes next.
There will be different responses to uncertainty across any workforce. Some people will stay, some will move on, and others will become more deliberate about what they want from their careers. Understanding those differences starts with asking better questions and making space for honest conversations. Because by the time someone hands in their notice, their decision may have been developing for months.
LGR may have paused, but workforce planning cannot. The pause gives councils an opportunity to understand where commitment may be weakening, which skills and experience they are most at risk of losing, and what people need to see a future for themselves within the organisation.
The people questions have not paused. The councils that keep asking them, and act on the answers, will be better placed to retain critical capability, support individual ambition and maintain the leadership capacity needed for whatever comes next.
Helen Anderson is associate director and Greg Hayes is managing director at Tile Hill
Want to understand how senior local government leaders are responding to uncertainty, career change and workforce challenges? Download our full research report, LGR & Devolution: From Anticipation to Opportunity, at https://landing.tile-hill.co.uk/lgr-devolution-anticipation-to-opportunity-report/mjff.html
