As I write from my kitchen table, our polling shows minorities are already finding the measures to contain the virus extremely difficult, and more who expect this to be the case soon. The range of impacts that people say they're experiencing include financial difficulties, not being able to pay for essential items or housing, and on broader wellbeing, lost sleep, increased anxiety, more drinking and arguments at home.
Local government has so far been capable of responding, with food parcels for the self-isolating, largely sensitive enforcement of social distancing by officials and the police, and massive efforts to maintain social care services.
At present the Government's actions are viewed positively by the public, with satisfaction with Government up 16 points since the crisis began. This pattern is repeated across Europe and is what pollsters expect to see in times of a national emergency. Boris Johnson saw public outpourings of support during his hospitalisation, but less so for his overall strategy, with people likely to think the Government's approach has been inconsistent. This is likely to relate in part to the public's strong impression that the original aim was to achieve ‘herd immunity' – although there is now greater sense that the overriding objective is to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed.
This seems to have been achieved so far – one of the most puzzling things in the COVID-19 data for me remains the huge disparity in ICU usage between the UK and countries with similar death rates from the virus. For instance, when I recently looked, the UK had 3,343 cases in ICU and France 7,039. The stories from our hospitals are bleak, but not as dramatic as those in Lombardy where, with more ICU beds per capita, the picture was like something in a war zone. In Britain, with more daily deaths, the mood seems stoical, and whereas the French are reporting deaths in care homes, which are spiking upwards, here we seem to be keeping calm and ignoring social care as much as we usually do.
Local government will seem to cope with whatever gets thrown at it – both its great strength, and its great weakness. When the time comes to consider what sort of health and social care system we really need in the aftermath of COVID-19, with a massive increase in the size of the state a possibility, will local government finally get the resources it needs?
Ben Page is chief executive of Ipsos MORI
